[page 32]
Japan
Liberal election defeat
by Carl Simmons
A political earthquake has shaken Japan. In July's upper house elections the Japan Socialist Party made spectacular gains. Their share of the vote rose from 20% to 38%, winning 46 seats to 36 for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
For the first time since its formation 35 years ago, the LDP has lost its majority in the upper house, raising the possibility of an early general election and an opposition victory.
The LDP owed its domination of Japanese pol itics to the unprecedented development of the economy in the post-war period, plus a rigged electoral system that gave the farmers (now only 5% of the population) 25% of electoral representation.
But an increase in general discontent, coinciding with a number of unpopular government measures like the sales tax and the liberalisation of agricultural imports, as well as corruption scandals, damaged its electoral base.
Paradoxically, in the last two years, the economy has recovered strongly from the stagnation of 1986-7. That temporary lull was caused by a
M0F00202222000
strong yen dampening export growth. But in response companies cut costs, and reaped huge profits from investments in land and on the stock exchange. Toyota actually made more money from Zaiteku (financial engineering on the stock-market), than by making cars.
Unemployment fell to 2.4%. The economy is now growing at a staggering 9.1%. Capital investment is now higher than in the USA, even though Japan's economy is only 60% its size. Japan's GNP per capita is higher than the USA.
However, only a relatively small section of society have benefited from this boom in the economy. While company profits increased by 24% last year, wages increased only by 5-6%. With the 3% sales tax taken into account, wages have barely kept pace with inflation.
Workers have born the brunt of the cost cutting in industry with speedups and the deterioration of conditions: 60% of salaried employees and lower management grades suffer from stress-related stomach problems. Overtime working is now back to the level of 1970, and despite pious sermons from the government on the need to increase leisure time, the average working week, including overtime, stands at around 55 hours.
The increases in land and stock prices have put home ownership beyond the reach of most of the middle class, let alone workers. As one salaried employee with a big company stated on BBC's Newsnight, "If you are honest and work hard you won't even earn enough to own your own house."
So the economic boom deepened resentment over inequalities, particularly the flaunting of wealth by the 'tochi-richi' or landed rich. The Recruit scandal had the effect of petrol poured onto a bonfire. Corruption has been endemic to LDP rule, but the spectacle of the party's leading lights making small fortunes from 'gifts' of pre-listed shares in a property company, at a time when most were suffering from the high land prices, produced outrage.
Also, the LDP recently removed restrictions on some agricultural imports to appease the US capitalists and avoid the imposition of retaliat-
Above, disgraced ex-premier Takeshita and below left, Sosure Uno.
His seedy private life contributed his defeat.
Economic boom deepened resentment over inequalities and corruption
MIR D31
[page 33]
320 Autu Tapa
MIR
1
Socialist leader Doi.
Elections how that ›P is not invincible
ory duties on Japanese industrial products. Consequently. many farmers' organisations called for a vote against the LDP. In one, where the leadership recommended a vote for the LDP, young tarmers stormed the stage and started to beat them up! In the elections they lost many previously sate seats in rural constituencies.
Probably an even more significant factor in the Socialists' victory was the government's introduction, despite election promises to the contrary, of the sales tax. Coupled with the abolition of a previous tax, this meant that people would pay less for whisky and BMW cars, but more on food and the necessities of life. With food prices accounting for 26% of the income ofan average family, this provokeda wave of discontent, particularly among women.
The revelations surrounding Premier Uno's seedy private life added to the discontent of women voters, as did the statement of the agricultural minister that women had no place in politics and should be looking after their families! Women voted almost two to one against the LDP, with the Socialists picking up most of their votes.
The other capitalist opposition parties, the inappropriately named Buddhist Komeito ('Clean Government Party') and the Democratic Socialist Party (a right wing split from the Socialists in the 1960s) were deeply implicated in the Recruit and other scandals and lost seats. They do however provide the Socialist leadership with an excuse for abandoning the party's former policies on defence and embracing promarket economic policies.
For Doi: "The issue today is not building up a socialist state...it is whether we can construct a democratic country." Doi went on: "It would not be correct to think there would be an immediate or very radical change in policy" under a Socialist-led government. As the Financial Times commented: "There is nothing socialist about Miss Doi's pledges to abolish the hated consumption tax, clean up politics and to protect farmers. It is unashamedly populist." (22/7/89)
Had the Socialist Party leaders not thrown them a lifeline in the form of an electoral bloc, they would probably have sunk without trace.
The only other gainer from the elections was the Rengo, a trade union federation formed from the merger of the Socialist unions with the company unions supporting the Democratic Socialist Party. The new federation is formally linked to neither party. But it advocates an alliance between the Socialists and the capitalist opposition to exclude the Communists. Polit- ¡cally, it is close to the right-wing of the Socialist Party.
It stood 12 candidates, mainly constituencies, to avoid disputes parties over who should stand.
elected.
The DSP
Komeito
in single-seat between the Eleven were
for the Socialists. In many cities they formed blocs with the ruling LDP against the Socialists. It is possible that even if an early election were held for the lower house and the LDP lost its majority, it could succeed in hanging on to power by splitting the opposition, by forming a coalition with the DSP. The DSP, with its calls for increased defence spending and only lukewarm opposition to the sales tax, has far more in common with the LDP than with the Socialist Party.
The LDP could struggle on despite the loss of its upper house majority until next summer. The wealth of Japanese capitalism gives it a certain room for manoeuvre. It has already attempted to buy farmers' votes by halting this year's reduction in the rice subsidy. There have even been suggestions of abolishing the sales tax. They could carry through some political reforms, making the pretence of rooting out corruption.
But every previous attempt at 'reform' has come up against the barrier of the factional interests that dominate the party. The information about Uno's liaisons with prostitutes is now believed to have been leaked to the press by members of opposing factions.
The factions do not represent any real policy differences but the almost feudal networks of personal patronage and in some cases commercial interest. The interests of the factions and the business groups that support them frequently conflict with the interests of the capitalist class as a whole.
This is confirmed by the selection of Toshiki Taifu as the new premier after Uno's post-election resignation. Taifu was the candidate backed by the largest party faction led by disgraced former premier Takeshita who was forced to resign for taking favours from Recruit. Taifu also took $70,000 from Recruit.
The election results are a signpost to future developments. They show that the LDP is not invincible. The Japanese economic miracle will not last for ever. There are already fears of over-production and increased trade frictions resulting from the investment boom.
Sooner or later the Socialist Party will be pushed into power. Apart from a brief period in coalition in 1947-8 the workers' parties have never been in government. Workers will learn from the experience of the Socialists in office. Demands will grow inside both the Socialist and Communist Parties for a break with the capitalist parties, and socialist change.
If blocked on the political front, workers will move on the industrial plane. The Japanese bosses' reign of terror in the factories will be challenged, previously tame company unions transformed or pushed to the side, as the 'social peace' and 'class harmony' of the last 40 years evaporates.